Winner Rankings

[chriso]

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mUdXnN2ML1g-37mXl99MmXE92H7ODQ-V_Vmhsbcmf28/edit?usp=sharing

i'm doing a ranking of how likely i think each player is to win

not sure if i will do it every round but alas here we go

feel free to join in and make ur own sheet on the bottom

[devonsampson]

Updated mine for Round 3. On Blue, Mojo and Danny B rise, while Nolan falls. From Pink, Knight soars to the top overall, while Bailey slips off due to a lack of strong connections on his tribe. Finally, from Orange, Jordan and Danny G. make their debuts on the contender list.

[devonsampson]

Updated post-double boot; wanted to narrow it down from 8 to 5.

Aubra and Mojo surpass Knight for their near-perfect reads on their tribe and excellent overall position, Danny Butler falls just short of the cut for his slight mishandling of Aubra and Mojo, Ricky rises for his strong round, and TSL/Danny G fall off the list for the former's inactivity and the latter's unwillingness to do much of anything with the power he's consolidated. Expect TSL back on this list in no time, though, since this round was arguably the greatest testament to her power yet (not being in any danger despite being completely absent!)

i.imgur.com/rUIYGS0.png

[devonsampson]

Just going to assume a Paige boot this round so I can update these now.

Aubra and Mojo plummet off the contenders list as they've attracted significant attention and distrust on their new tribes, and they're likely going to be losing their fellow Mad Hatter Danny B. soon.

Knight and Ricky return to the top for their solid position on their new tribe as well as the good position their allies are in on NuPink. Danny K makes his debut on the contenders list alongside his fellow original Pinks.

Taylor returns to the contenders list, likely for good, after establishing a great position on her new tribe and finding the swap idol. She'll probably be #1 by next week tbh.

With a clear gap between the top 4 and the rest of the field imo, I decided to put Nolan at #5 for what I swear are non-biased reasons! Everyone on NuLakota has positive things to say about Nolan, there's basically zero chance he'll be the first or even the second boot if they go to tribal, and he's is in a nice swing position should TSL-Jordan and Knight-Ricky-DannyK go to war. This is not a typical position for Nolan in these games - he tends to be in a figurehead role of dominant alliances - but I think this is actually the best position he's had in a game yet. If he doesn't revert to his natural tendency to overplay and be perceived as an alpha, I think he's primed for a deep run here.

i.imgur.com/QarjtvK.png

[chriso]

yeah just updated mine, taylor is winning. natalie/bailey seem to be in a good long-term spot as well.

[devonsampson]

Updated post-Rachel: TSL (or "TLC" as Danny K called her XD) is up to #1, where she probably should have been last week tbh; Knight drops off the list because when I told him I couldn't meet up with him because I was hanging out with a girl he DM'd her and offered her $200 to flake on me like wtf he's been a bit sloppy; Aubra is back on the list because she seems like she's back on solid footing in the game.

Contenders:
1. TSL (aka "TLC")
2. Ricky
3. Danny K.
4. Nolan
5. Aubra

[devonsampson]

Contenders:
1. TSL
2. Danny K. (+1)
3. Ricky (-1)
4. Aubra (+1)

[devonsampson]

Contenders:
1. Danny K. (+1)
2. Ricky (+1)
3. TSL (-2)
4. Knight

TSL drops a few spots because the people on the other tribe - that she's looking forward to linking up with - are basing their boot decisions in large part on what will weaken TSL down the road. Oof. This development puts "the three" of Danny K., Ricky, and Knight in the prime position in this game; thus, I have Danny K and Ricky leapfrogging TSL for now, with Knight bumping Aubra from the list (but staying behind TSL because he told me that he thinks he has TSL wrapped around his finger...BIG OOF).

Hon. mentions:
- Bailey (would be the sole survivor if the game was just NuNuminu, but still has a somewhat cloudy forecast at a merge)
- Aubra (falls off the top 4 because she has a decent-but-uncertain forecast down the road, similar to Bailey)
- Natalie (see above, but I feel like she'd be better positioned than Bailey and Aubra because she's closer with the Numinu three)

[devonsampson]

Contenders:
1. TSL (+1)
2. Bailey
3. Aubra
4. Danny K (-3)

TSL is going to stay at the top of my rankings for the rest of the season until she's voted out, after the mob hit she put out on Nolan. Ricky-Knight-DannyK plummet from the rankings after letting TSL get her way (DannyK stays at #4 because he's the most likely to survive the fallout of his alliance's inevitable decimation.)

[devonsampson]

Contenders:
1. TSL (-)
2. Bailey (-)
3. Danny K. (+1)
4. Knight (new)

Aubra falls off after being blindsided and not being included in the Sane 5 chat; Knight gets back on the list since it seems like TSL actually values him (so it's not a completely asymmetric relationship.) Also, the steal-a-vote could come in handy for Knight.

[devonsampson]

Chopped it down to 3 contenders since we're at F8:

1. TSL
2. Knight
3. Aubra

Knight got blindsided but he still has maneuverability, perhaps even with TSL. It feels like he'll have a good shot to win in the end, as long as he's not up against TSL. Kilby and I went back and forth on this in the VL, but I really think that this game is different from other games in which the jury didn't end up liking TSL.

Aubra's game really opened up with this Mojo blindside. She still has some work to do to set herself up well for endgame, but even now I feel like she has more win equity than the two mid-tier contenders: Bailey and Ricky.

Also, shout out to myself for calling that Jordan would be an endgame goat/zero-vote finalist all the way back at F18.

media.giphy.com/media/fcsrmKkYPtZhC/giphy.gif

[devonsampson]

1. TSL
2. Aubra
3. Danny K

I think Knight has a better chance than Aubra and DannyK of getting to the end, but most of these timelines involve TSL sitting next to him so his win equity is kind of low. DannyK and Aubra are leading a late charge that's been really fun to watch. I think Aubra's a slightly higher contender because DannyK is about to make Ricky SUPER bitter against him (if he goes ahead with his plan to use Ricky's steal a vote to vote him out) and Aubra is better at comps.

[chriso]

Aubra
Taylor
Danny K.
Ricky
Jake
Knight
Jordan

bc why not

[devonsampson]

i.imgur.com/9LA3Hw1.png